Økonomisk Oversikt April 2008 Økonomisk Oversikt April 2008 Contents Oversiktstabeller Makro nøkkeltall ................... 6 Renter........................... Overblikk Inflasjonen er kommet, nå truer nedturen Situasjonen i amerikansk økonomi har forverret s Overblikk amerikansk økonomi. Spansk økonomi, som utgjør 12 % av eurolandenes, står foran en omfatte Overblikk BNP reel vekst, % Verden1) BIG-32) USA Japan Euroområdet Tyskland Frankrike Italia Spania Overblikk Pengepolitiske styringsrenter USA Japan Euro-området Danmark Sverige Norge Storbritannia S Norge Norsk økonomi merker nedturen ute, men mindre enn andre · Lønns- og prisveksten blir høy · Me Norge flater ut i løpet av inneværende år. Igangsettingen av boliger har falt de siste måneder. Nedg Norge Til tross for at inflasjonen synes å bli om lag som anslått i forrige utgave av Økonomisk Over Denmark Easy times over for the economy · Growth set to drop sharply in the period ahead. · Housing Denmark So far the housing market downturn has masked large regional differences, which are most cle Denmark Exports are also expected to be hit by the US slowdown and the weaker growth in the Euro are Finland Downturn set to last a few years · Slowdown more prolonged than earlier foreseen. · Risks m Finland prices will erode purchasing power. In 2009 employment growth will slacken, but the rise in Finland It should ease households worries that inflation will slow markedly in 2009. This is due to Sweden The Swedish economy is loosing momentum · Swedish growth below the potential level. · Inflat Sweden ened households confidence in their own financial situation. However, on the positive side, h Sweden Riksbank to cut rates in the autumn At the end of 2007 CPI inflation was at a 15-year high. T USA Recession ­ how deep and how long? · The recession is probably a reality. · The recession will USA Given the losses on mortgage loans and tighter liquidity the Feds aggressive rate cuts have so f USA However, in step with further increases in unemployment and continued tight credit standards we Euro area Economy on the brink of a downswing · Phase of subdued growth will drag on. · Inflation t Euro area will cut their savings at a time when consumer confidence is weak. This makes private cons Euro area Our inflation forecast is based on the view that the rise in oil and food prices will halt Japan Export reliance makes Japan vulnerable · Exports to weaken in step with global downturn. · Ho Japan planned VAT hike in 2009. The BoJ to leave interest rates unchanged After having been negative China Olympic gold in growth ­ but slowdown just around the corner · Inflation sets 12-year record. China serves by far. A major chunk has so far been invested in USD-denominated bonds, but since the Oil market Still trending upwards, but the US is the wild card The oil price is still trending upwa Commodities Clouds gathering on the metal market horizon Prices of industrial metals continued sees Economic Research Nordea: Danmark: Helge J. Pedersen, Global sjeføkonom helge.pedersen@nordea.com, t Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ